Smith runs interference for Trump, undermining Canada's tariff deterrence

Premier Smith is seeking a side-deal with Trump in which he excludes oil from tariffs in exchange for her weakening Canada’s threat of retaliation.

Alberta Premier Smith is so upset about a possible U.S. tariff attack on Canada that at today’s premiers’ meeting she demanded Canada do nothing to prevent it.

It’s impossible she doesn’t understand that sometimes to prevent a fight you need to show you’re ready to fight. She herself is a seasoned political fighters.

The disturbing explanation is Smith believes she can get a side deal with Trump in which he exempts her patron, the oil and gas industry, from any tariffs in exchange for her undermining Canada’s fight against a tariff attack on other Canadian industries.

Content of Smith’s whispers to Trump unknown

Premier Smith last weekend travelled to attend court at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago palace, rubbing shoulders with the Republicans, billionaires and hangers-on who are about to take control of the U.S. federal government.

Smith spoke to Trump on the introduction of Kevin O’Leary, who has publicly supported Trump’s annexation comments.

O’Leary is pursuing his own agenda with Trump, seeking the president-elect’s support to take over TikTok, which is currently subject to American sanctions due to its connections to China.

Smith is less transparent. When Canadian leaders meet with foreign state representative there’s usually senior bureaucrats around and a read-out summarizing the conversation follows. But there was no official record of the Smith-Trump conversation and Smith has made no significant public comment on the discussion.

Smith demands Canada not stand up to Trump

Smith flew to Florida to meet Trump but was the only premier who did not attend this week’s meeting of Canada’s first ministers in-person attendance. She tuned in by videoconference, demanded that Canada not threaten to retaliate against Trump, then refused to sign the joint communique signed by every other premier and the PM.

Let’s be clear about the retaliation talk: it’s a show of force intended to deter an attack. To be an effective deterrent, Canada’s threatened retaliation doesn’t need to be as big as Trump’s threatened attack. But it should be as big and united as possible.

A bear may want to steal food from a family of minks, and if it’s a fight to the death can surely take it. But the minks together can likely inflict enough pain to cause the bear to think again and move on. Canada must now act like a family of minks, showing it can inflict sufficient pain to cause Trump and his cabal to move on.

Of course Smith knows this and therefore her actions can fairly be described as traitorous. Not just traitorous to Canada, but even to industries in her own province: agriculture, lumber, mining and others which are not the preferred children of Smith. Danielle Smith will not fare well in future history books about Canada.

Smith’s trust in Trump may make her the fool

And there’s even further danger in the Smith-Moe side-deal: it assumes Trump will keep his word.

Having gotten Smith to undermine a united Canadian show of strength, Trump might then attack Canada’s oil industry anyway.

Though Canada has just finished a $35 billion pipeline to broaden sales beyond U.S. markets, Trump may try to have Canada abandon its overseas sales ambitions and retreat to U.S. exclusive market control.

Poilievre's retaliation stance unknown

And Smith’s betrayal creates creates a very significant issue for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, one he has so far dodged. The yappy Conservative leader has been uncharacteristically silent about Smith, Trump and retaliation. It is certainly worrying that his campaign manager, corporate lobbyist Jenni Brynne, is a MAGA follower.

Canadian reporters have an important job to do in flushing Poilievre out of hiding to find out if he will align with Smith or with Canada.