Canada got just 0.9% closer to GHG goal in 2023

Liberals leaving with much left undone and likely next PM vowing to undo much of what it did.

Greenhouse gas emissions were just 0.9 per cent lower in 2023 than the previous year, according to a government report released in December.

Emissions in 2013 were only six megatonnes less than 2022, falling from 702 Mt to 694 Mt.

Reaching Canada’s 2030 emissions target of about 455 Mt requires a further reduction of 239 Mt. To reach the 2030 target would require a 34 Mt cut each year from 2024 to 2030.

From a rate of 0.9 per cent annual reduction, the pace needs to be significantly accelerated to five to six per cent a year for each of the next seven years.

Oil and gas sector Canada’s largest emitter

In 2023, the oil and gas sector was by far the largest emitter, responsible for 30.0 per cent, or 208 Mt, of all greenhouse gasses emitted in Canada. Emissions in the sector have fallen 6.7 per cent, or 15 Mt, since the 2018 peak of 223 Mt.

Transportation, at 22.6 per cent, was the sector with the second most emissions. Transportation emissions have fallen 7.1 per cent, or 12 Mt, since the 2019 peak of 169 Mt.

The electricity generation sector has had the largest decline in emissions, falling from 73 Mt in 2017 and 116 Mt in 2005 to 49 Mt in 2023. However, 2023 sector emissions were unchanged from 2022 as a failure to invest in clean generation has caused Ontario fossil fuel burning to triple since Doug Ford’s PCs were elected.

Proposed clean energy regulations, promised in the Liberal Party’s 2021 election platform, that would have required zero emissions from electricity generation by 2035, were abandoned by the federal Liberal government in late December.

Liberals leaving with much left undone

A report from the Canadian Climate Institute earlier this year found policies already in progress will cut annual emissions by 586 Mt in 2030, leaving Canada 28.8 per cent above the 2030 target of about 455 Mt.

The CCI report found the strongest effect will come from industrial carbon pricing, which will remove between 53 and 90 Mt of GHGs.

The industrial levy will cut between 2.4 and 4.7 times more emissions than the better known consumer carbon tax, which is projected to cut emissions between nine and 12 Mt by 2030, according to the CCI report.

At up to 77 Mt and 41 Mt respectively, an oil and gas industry emissions cap egulation and a methane regulation are expected to cut more carbon than the consumer tax but less than the industrial levy.

Draft emissions cap regulations were posted for consultation in November, 2024. Draft methane regulations were announced in December, 2023. Neither has been implemented.

A Poilievre government likely to undo progress

With a federal election expected in 2025 and much left undone, the next government will need to make signification additional steps in order to meet Canada’s 455 Mt goal in 2030.

But Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party holds a wide lead in popular support, has not indicated if he will maintain the industrial carbon levy, institute the emissions cap or pass methane regulations. He has promised to cancel the consumer tax.