After Musk's German election interference SPD and Greens rise as CDU and AfD fall

American billionaire's endorsement fuels SPD and Green attacks on AfD while CDU caught between disliking Trump and wanting to cater to him.

Substantial voter shifts seems to be at work since chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, precipitating an election in which U.S. billionaire Elon Musk has inserted himself.

Linder, a member of the business liberal Free Democrats, was fired November 6, 2024 after releasing a paper calling for tax cuts, deregulation and government spending cuts, a path rejected by Chancellor Scholz, a Social Democrat.

Coalition break-up may have been FDP swan song

After the SDP break with the FDP, Scholz brought a confidence motion to parliament on which his government was defeated December 16, triggering a general election February 23.

The FDP, once a considerable force and king-maker between the conservative Christian Democrats and SPD, has fallen below the five per cent cut off in Germany’s proportional representation election. Yesterday’s YouGov poll puts the FDP at four per cent, having received 11.7 per cent in 2021.

YouGov has surveyed party support at least monthly for the past several years.

Inflation and Russian oil sanctions fuel far-right AfD

German has struggled economically due to global supply chain shocks causing inflation, as in other countries. But it has also been particularly hard hit by fuel price increases due to sanctions on Russia.

After the EU’s March 2022 sanctions, a litre of gas surged to over $2.30 USD. The price spike gave a lift to the far-right, pro-Russia AfD as many Germans questioned the country’s consumer carbon tax, its support for Ukraine and the shuttering of nuclear power plans, even as much of the county’s electricity was still generated from natural gas.

New far left party challenges AfD’s working class appeal

During the economic turbulence the new, left-wing BSW (Reason and Justice) party was formed by a break-away faction of Die Linke, the small left-wing party that emerged from the remnants of the governing Socialist Unity Party in the former East German republic.

The BSW peaked at nine per cent in July, 2024 and may enter parliament in this election while Die Linke evaporates. The BSW leader has blamed Die Linke’s weakness on a focus on identity issues and has agued for an economic focus to combat the AfD among poor and working class voters.

Musk’s inference becomes central campaign issue

On December 28 an opinion piece from U.S. billionaire Elon Musk, fresh from donating at least $260 million to fund Donald Trump’s election win, ran in German magazine Der Welt endorsing the far-right AfD and resulting in strong push-back from other parties. Der Welt’s comment editor quit shortly after.

Musk’s argument in favour of the AfD had little to do with the cost of living and everything to do with racism and identity politics. He defended the AfD from far right accusations, arguing “Alice Weidel, the party's leader, has a same-sex partner from Sri Lanka! Does that sound like Hitler to you?”

Musk has continued to insert himself in the German campaign, making numerous posts on X and holding in a live stream with the AfD leader.

While the AfD had nudged up to 21 per cent in YouGov’s polls by early January, it has fallen back to 19 per cent in the poll published yesterday. Despite the recent down trend, and the tumble from an earlier peak of 24 per cent in January 2024, the AfD remains strongly up from it 2021 performance of 10.4 per cent.

SPD and Greens rise as they counter Musk’s interference

As Chancellor and leader of the centre-left Social Democrats, Scholz has been handed a powerful campaign focus by Musk, and has continued to campaign against the U.S billionaire as a defender of German’s democratic traditions.

SPD support had crumbled from 25.7 per cent in the 2021 election to just 14 per cent by the end of 2023, remaining flat through much of 2024. But after distancing himself from the FDP austerity plan and attacking Musk’s interventions, Scholz’s SPD hit 19 per cent in yesterday’s poll.

The Greens, the third partner in the defunct governing coalition, had fallen to 11 per cent in October, 2024 from 14.7 in 2021. Together with the Angela Merkel-era CDU, the Greens have come under attack for shuttering nuclear plants, an issue on which public attitudes appear to have recently shifted in the context of the Russian attack on Ukraine.

The AfD has been particularly strong in their attacks on the nuclear shut down, blaming it for electricity price hikes and encouraging appeasement with Russia in order to normalize natural gas supplies and cut household costs. Moving away from energy issues to issues of billionaire interference in aid of the AfD and the threat of Trump’s new presidency appear to have given a reprieve to both the SPD and the Greens.

CDU steps uncertainly as Trump adds to Russia threat

The Christian Democrats have fallen five points since their peak immediately before the coalition collapse, but continue in uncontested first place.

The CDU has taken the most hawkish position on the Ukraine war, now publicly musing about arming the attacked nation with Taurus missiles.

But CDU leader Friedrich Merz encountered challenges responding to a recently leaked diplomatic cable from Germany’s ambassador to the U.S. which raised concerns about Trump’s “vengeance” and the democratic threat of big tech billionaires “co-governing” with him.

While Green and SPD leaders used the leak to again attack Trump and Musk, Metz called the leaked memo a “huge blow” to Germany’s reputation in Washington.

Merz also has not been helped by the release of a book by former CDU Chancellor Angela Merkle in late November, 2024. Merkle documents her challenges with Trump during his first presidency and highlights the importance to Germany of U.S. support for an independent Ukraine.

There is a considerable tension between the CDU’s strongly pro-Ukraine position and their softness on Trump, who is back-peddling on Ukraine support.

One month to election day

So much has already shifted in Germany’s election and so far there’s no evident governing coalition line-up with a win in grasp. For now the heading seems to point toward an indecisive grand coalition of the CDU with either the Greens or SPD.

The next month in the federal nation of 84 million people and third largest economy could be pivotal not just for Germans, but for cutting the path forward for democracies and democrats. Or not.