Trans Mountain pipeline 22% empty in June; forecast use revised down

Forecasts have been downgraded but still look too rosy. Should Canadians pay for a second Pacific pipeline with so much capacity to Asia still unused?

The Trans Mountain pipeline, which carries crude oil from near Edmonton to terminals in the Vancouver area, has been mostly running at about 80 per cent capacity since its expansion opened on May 1, 2024, according to data from the Canada Energy Regulator.

In June, the pipeline, which cost Canadians $34 billion ($829 per capita), delivered just under 700 million barrels a day (Mb/d), only about 78 per cent of its almost 900 Mb/d capacity.

That 200 Mb/d of unused capacity, and the company’s claimed ability to increase capacity to about 1200 Mb/d, raises questions why Canadians would now be asked to pay for a second pipeline to the Pacific coast.

Downgraded forecasts still look too optimistic

As recently as November, 2024, Trans Mountain was forecasting a 96 per cent utilization rate in 2025. But a March regulatory filing by Trans Mountain downgraded the 2025 forecast to 84 per cent, now only reaching 96 per cent in 2028.

And the downgraded forecast probably remains too optimistic, data from the Canada Energy Regulator suggests.

In the first six months of 2025, the pipeline ran at 81.7 per cent capacity, requiring utilization over 86 per cent for each of the final six months of the year to hit the 2025 forecast of 84 per cent.

But in only two of the 14 months since the expansion opened has the pipeline run at or over 86 per cent. And the data shows no trend to higher utilization rates.

Current low utilization contrasts with use rates before expansion, when the pipeline regularly ran close to 100 per cent and sometimes moved volumes higher than the stated capacity.

About 24% of Trans Mountain capacity flowing to Asia

Even though below capacity, the expanded pipeline is diversifying export markets.

In June, about 55 per cent of Trans Mountain’s volume, or 386 Mb/d, was delivered to the Westridge Marine Terminal in the Vancouver area, according to Canada Energy Regulator data. The remaining 45 per cent was delivered to the Burnaby or Sumas terminals, bound for refineries in Canada or the United States.

From Westridge, most the ships loaded have headed to Asia.

Since May, 2024, 276 ships have been loaded at Westridge, according to Trans Mountain’s Q1 2025 report. Of those ships, 154, or 56 per cent, sailed for China or other Asian ports. About 44 per cent headed to U.S. destinations.

While Trans Mountain’s Q1 report doesn’t indicate the volumes heading to each market, if 56 per cent of Westridge’s volume is also shipping to Asia, an average 216 Mb/d, or about 24 per cent of the pipeline’s 900 Mb/d capacity, shipped to Asia over the past 14 months.

Given the pipeline has about 200 Mb/d in unused capacity now and up to 300 Mb/d in capacity that could be added, it appears a tripling of sales to Asian markets could be accommodated without paying for a second Pacific pipeline.

Canada Energy Regulator data shows non-U.S. exports of Canadian crude reached 12 per cent of total exports in June 2025, up from four per cent in June 2023.