September retail sales more evidence Ontario is the sick man of Canada

Canadian retail sales rose to a new peak in September, but not in Ontario, where they remain lower than in 2022

September retail sales hit new highs in British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec, lifting national sales by $284 million from August, and reaching a new peak of $66.9 billion, according to Statistics Canada data released Friday.

But unlike other Canadians, the Ontario consumer isn’t tapping their pay device. Ontario’s September retail sales fell $23.9 million from August and remain $1.1 billion below a peak in June 2022.

Under the unresolved housing crisis driving high housing costs and huge mortgage debt, the impact of colliding waves of cost pressures on Ontarians has been outsized.

With pump prices passing $2 per litre in March 2022 and food inflation hitting 8.8 per cent in April, the Bank of Canada added financial pressure on heavily borrowers with a full point to interest rates in June, the month retailing peaked.

Ontario is Canada’s leader — in economic malaise

This fall the economic news for Ontario has been almost all bad, and strikingly different than the trends we’re seeing in the rest of the country. Most of this has been documented by Data Shows in the past few months.

The housing crisis persists under the Ford PCs’ approach. By priorizing sprawl, caving to NIMBYism on density and refusing to make public investments, the Ford PCs have put wealthy developer-landholders in control of the pace of development. The result is third-worst per capita house starts among the 10 provinces.

It is one thing to be a high cost of living jurisdiction with rising incomes and strong housing construction. That’s the story in British Columbia, where renting and buying a home in the Lower Mainland is brutally expensive but the average wage is highest in Canada and housing starts are strong. BC still has a lot to do on housing and affordability, but a lot has already been done.

It’s quite a different story in Ontario. Housing is brutally expensive but Ontario’s average wage is now below the Canadian average and fell this July and August.

The province’s manufacturing sector, particularly the critical auto sector, is shrinking in jobs and sales. Residential construction, because of weak housing starts, is punching below potential. The vaunted Ring of Fire project remains stalled in court as an offer of federal dollars to engage communities goes untapped. And there is a looming gap in electricity supply, an issue Data Shows will explore soon.

Ontario’s rate of union membership is second lowest in Canada, below all other provinces except Alberta. Ontario unemployment has been above national rates for most of the past four years. Ontario’s personal bankruptcies are rising fastest in Canada.

The end result is a weak consumer, weak retail sales and a have-not Ontario receiving federal equalization aid.