NDP has access to largest anti-Poilievre swing vote, poll shows

Number of voters who would swing behind NDP to stop Poilievre is 50% larger than the group willing to vote Liberal to stop him

To stop Pierre Poilievre, 55 per cent of current Liberal, Green or Bloc supporters would “definitely” or “probably” swing their support to Jagmeet Singh’s NDP if they were best positioned, according to the most recent poll from Abacus Research.

The NDP’s potential swing group, which represents 17 per cent of the Canadian electorate, would boost the NDP within close range of the poll-leading Conservatives.

The NDP’s potential anti-Poilievre momentum is more than 50 per cent larger than the group open to following the Liberals to stop Poilievre. Only 11 per cent of Canadians drawn from current NDP, Green or Bloc supporters would definitely or probably vote Liberal to stop Poilievre.

Majority of Greens, Liberals would switch to NDP

Among Green supporters, 57 per cent would definitively or probably switch to the NDP to stop Poilievre, but only 36 per cent would switch to the Liberals.

For Bloc supporters, 36 per cent could swing to the NDP to stop Poilievre while 42 per cent could move to the Liberals.

And while 59 per cent of Liberals could swing to the NDP to stop Poilievre, only 50 per cent of NDP supporters are willing to make the same move for the Liberals.

Ending deal helps NDP access pool of voters “negatively affiliated” with Conservatives

The same poll found 40 per cent of current Conservative voters, representing 17 per cent of the electorate, are “negatively affiliated” to the Conservatives. For this group, their primary vote motivation is a dislike for the Trudeau Liberals rather than liking the Poilievre Conservatives.

In contrast, 79 per cent of NDP supporters are motivated by liking Singh’s NDP, rather than disliking another party or leader.

Jagmeet Singh, in breaking his association with the Trudeau Liberals, may now be better able to access this 17 per cent of voters with the Conservatives for anti-Liberal reasons.

Switching three of those 17 points to the NDP and adding its swing vote would pull the NDP into a tie with the Conservatives, with both just below likely majority territory.

Simultaneously coalescing an anti-Poilivre vote and peeling away some negatively affiliated Conservatives presents a tangible if narrow pathway for the NDP to stop the Poilievre Conservatives, a pathway blocked for the Liberals, antipathy for whom is a major component of Poilievre’s success.