In-coming Carney Liberals' leadership bump could be challenge to keep

Trudeau ran left of the NDP and held his leadership bump. But more conservative Dion and Ignatieff saw their leadership bump melt away.

Mark Carney’s more conservative positioning may make it difficult for the presumptive incoming Liberal leader to hang on to his current popularity bump, an analysis of past Liberal leadership races shows.

Carney’s campaign has moved away from Trudeau’s perceived left-wing policies in an effort to collapse policy differences with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Carney has vowed to cut the public service, slay the deficit, reduce capital gains taxes, and axe the consumer carbon tax, all conservative priorities.

By collapsing major policy contrasts with the Conservatives, Liberals hope to move forward onto new terrain they believe will be more advantageous: leader competence and best choice to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Liberal gains coming at expense of Conservatives and NDP

Two polls released today show Liberal support has increased to 38 per cent from the low 20s only a month ago. That gain has come from both the Conservatives and NDP.

Conservative support is down about 10 points from recent levels, standing at 37 per cent according to EKOS Research and 36 per cent in Ipsos’ poll. In early January, Nanos, Abacus and Leger all found the Conservatives at 47 per cent.

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has dropped about eight points from last fall, when the NDP peaked at 20 or 21 per cent. NDP support has dropped to 12 per cent, according to both Ipsos and EKOS Research.

Trudeau running left of NDP kept leadership bump

In the 30 days after Justin Trudeau’s selection as leader, polls showed his Liberals averaging 37.9 per cent support.

The Trudeau Liberals consistently lead in the polls from Trudeau’s selection in 2013 until spring 2015, taking support from both the NDP and Conservatives. In winter 2015, NDP support had fallen to the low 20s while the Conservatives fell to the low 30s.

But NDP support recovered at Liberal expense after the surprising win in Alberta by Rachel Notley and the three major parties entered the 2015 election at almost identical support levels in the low 30s.

Trudeau’s strategy of outflanking the NDP on the left, and mistakes by the Mulcair campaign that played into the Liberal strategy, resulted in NDP support declining to 19.7 per cent, 2.8 points below the level during Trudeau’s leadership bump. Conservative support increased 2.9 points.

Dion and Ignatieff saw leadership bumps melt away

The leadership bounces for Liberal leaders Dion and Ignatieff was less strong than for Trudeau, reaching 35.5 and 34.3 per cent, respectively, but also took from both major opponents. NDP support averaged 12.9 per cent in the 30 days after the selection of Dion and 15.5 per cent after Ignatieff’s selection. Conservative support eroded to 32.6 per cent in Dion’s leadership bump and 31.5 per cent with Ignatieff.

Both Dion and Ignatieff ran conventional Liberal strategies, mostly focused on courting policy Conservatives while trying to hold NDP voters on strategic voting calls. The conservative shift was quite explicit under Michael Ignatieff. But even Stephane Dion’s Green Shift platform was centred on new tax cuts for business paid for with a new consumer carbon tax, which had no rebate.

That standard conservative orientation resulted in Conservative support recovering several points while NDP support rebounded strongly.

Carney’s conservative tack leaves opening for NDP rebound

As with Dion and Ignatieff, it will be a significant challenge for Carney to hold on to the support recently gained at NDP and Conservative expense. While Carney’s leadership will collapse many policy contrasts with Poilievre, it creates space for the NDP to focus on their policy contrasts with both Poilievre and Carney.

Carney’s views on NDP signature items such as dental care, pharmacare and school lunches have so far have not been covered in the media, but his focus on slaying the deficit suggests they are at risk. For the NDP, flushing out Carney on these contrasts could hasten a polling rebound and is a reasonable path forward for Singh and his caucus.