EXCLUSIVE: NDP holds slim leads in Thunder Bay's two ridings

Both ridings may be decided by whose supporters turnout, with PC supporters less motivated to cast a ballot.

Competition for Thunder Bay’s two seats in the Ontario legislature is tight, according to an EKOS Research poll released this morning in partnership with Impact Strategies.

In Thunder Bay-Atikokan, NDP candidate Judith Monteith-Farrell, with 31.3 per cent support, holds a narrow lead over PC incumbent Kevin Holland at 30.1 per cent and Liberal Stephen Margarit at 29.7 per cent. Monteith-Farrell held the seat from 2018 until 2022.

In Thunder Bay-Superior North, incumbent NDP candidate Lise Vaugeois holds 33.4 per cent support, a slim leader over PC Rick Dumas at 33.0 per cent and Liberal Brian Hamilton at 28.7 per cent.

Nearly two thirds say Ontario heading wrong direction

In both Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Thunder Bay-Superior North, a large majority say Ontario is heading in the wrong direction, 62 and 65 per cent, respectively.

The top issue in in both ridings is health care (37 and 44 per cent, respectively) with the cost of living second (32 and 29 per cent).

PC supporter less likely to say they’ll definitely vote

The outcome in both Thunder Bay seats may hinge on which party’s supporters are most motivated to cast a ballot and which party’s local campaign can mount the strongest get-out-the-vote effort, a challenge that appears to be bigger for the local PC campaigns.

In Thunder Bay-Superior North, just 76 per cent of PC supporters say they will definitely vote, well below NDP supporters at 94 per cent and Liberals at 88 per cent.

In Thunder Bay-Atikokan only 77 per cent of PC supporters say they will definitely vote, while 81 per cent of NDP supporters and 89 per cent of Liberal supporters say they will definitely vote.